| Extreme Sea Level Analysis and Return Period Estimation Along Alexandria Coast Using Gumbel Cumulative Distribution Functions |
| Mohamed Mahmoud Mohamed Heiba1, Sameh Tawfik Abd Elfattah2, Tarek Mohamed El-Geziry3 |
| DOI NO. https://doi.org/10.59660/51112 Received 12/05/2025, Revised 10/06/2025, Acceptance 09/07/2025, Available online and Published 01/01/2026 |
Abstract
The study Analise the return period of extreme sea levels at Alexandria coast with a different approach of statistics model, the cumulative distribution function method based on Gumbel equations provides a robust framework in statistics of extreme sea level prediction and recurrence estimation. Return period of extreme sea level heights are expected to occur more frequently in the next decades influenced by climate change and global warming. The study utilizes sea level radar hourly data, with total 13,986 measurements over 19.3 months, between18th of June 2018, to 9th of January 2020. The study methodology underpinning an analytical quantitative method to analyze observed data and determines the monthly extreme sea level value in random data. The Gumbel distribution measures the probability F(x) for each extreme sea level X to be equal or less than this value. The study focuses on the methods to estimate return period for short term of data observation; however, the study estimates the return period for extreme sea level in months instead of usual estimation in years. The results revealed that the average extreme sea level in Alexandria is 0.77 meters, with monthly extreme sea level range between 0.6 to 1.04 meters. The findings highlight the highest probability of occurrence concurrently with the highest sea level value and has the longest return period in months.
The study shed the light on the short pattern intervals of extreme sea level recurrence to support resilient coastal management, and precisely present risk assessment plan with clear vision to how far could Alexandria vulnerable to adverse conditions in near future.