| Reducing Marine Oil Pollution through International Regulation: An Empirical Assessment of MARPOL Annex I Enforcement in Egypt |
| Ahmed Raafat (1), Anthony C Cuevas (2) |
| DOI NO. https://doi.org/10.59660/52724 Received 15/11/2025, Revised 27/12/2025, Acceptance 14/02/2026, Available online and Published 01/07/2026 |
Abstract
Oil pollution from ship activities still constitutes a pressing concern for the Egyptian environment and waterways. This research examines whether the effectiveness of the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) Annex I in Egypt is linked to improved oil pollution outcomes and seeks to uncover institutional mechanisms influencing the effectiveness of implementation. A convergent mixed-methods approach combines national time-series analysis of reported spill outcomes (1990-2023) with segmented (interrupted) time-series reasoning around critical implementation milestones, multivariate analysis associating spill outcomes with enforcement-related factors (inspection activity, enforcement follow-through, and reception capacity availability), geographic information system hotspot mapping with kernel density estimation in 33 port/coastal regions, and thematic analysis of 25 semi-structured interviews with relevant authorities. Across all strands, results support better outcomes in later stages of implementation compared to earlier stages, with greater success when enforcement cycles and reception infrastructure are practically accessible.
Spatial analysis indicates persistent higher-risk corridors and port-approach zones, supporting a risk-based interpretation of enforcement and monitoring needs. Interview evidence emphasizes the importance of role clarity and inter-agency coordination, technical and human capacity, enforcement credibility, and information systems for detection and follow-up. The study recommends strengthening integrated enforcement–infrastructure–information pathways, institutionalizing hotspot-informed inspection targeting, standardizing inter-agency incident reporting and data integration, and prioritizing capacity building in high-risk and resource-constrained locations to further reduce ship-source oil pollution in Egypt.